The learning curve for Sanchez

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on Thursday, Pedro Sanchez urged the press to examine the letter that the European Commission will be submitted on its Draft Budgetary Plan (BPP) and compare it with the last received Mariano Rajoy. There, he added, will be “the difference in favour of this year in the confidence in the position of pro-european than has the Government of Spain”. The president created the expectation that Brussels would support more than Rajoy.

After knowing the content of the letter, this is not clear. The spin doctors of Moncloa try to give you the reason with three arguments. The first is to compare the letter to Spain with Italy, whose Government is in open rebellion against the EU. The second is that “it is hardest, in form and substance” -has disappeared, “the difference for” that showcased Sanchez – the cards above. And the third is that the PP also presented the Budget on time in 2017.

This last point is the one that is most questionable. In the charter of 2017, Brussels also became evident that the process was delayed: “Although we understand that the presentation of the Budget is lagging behind with respect to its usual schedule,” she warned. However, the letter to the Government of Sanchez has a paragraph unprecedented. He says: “we note that the presentation of the Draft Budget for 2019 to the Spanish Parliament has not been produced in parallel with the submission of the Draft Budgetary Plan to the European Commission”.

There is a nuance in this draft. Brussels is not limited to point out that the Budgets of Sanchez are out of time, but indicates that their claims are now outside the establishment. And the Commission has a powerful reason to point this out: the Government has failed to approve its spending ceiling. That is to say, he has not even begun. In 2017, Rajoy failed to get its Budget in legal terms, but when you sent your BPP to Brussels in October had already approved the spending ceiling in the sitting of 11 July. This, now, is not the case.

For as much as Government and we Can put your logos in a budget agreement, this text does not substitute the approval of the spending ceiling and much less the introduction of a draft law in the Congress. Is more, the rapid response to the Friday sent by the Government to the Commission – addressed to the doubts that it raised about the expansion of spending, the dimension of the structural adjustment and the reduction of the public debt – makes no mention of the legislative strategy that intends to follow and that is the gordian knot of what is concerned in Brussels.

there are two possibilities to explain why Sanchez was assumed that the letter would support. The first is that the thought of truth, and are in accordance with the readings of benevolent advisors. The second is that you have confused education with approval. In the first case, should enrich its range of advisors. In the second, he is committing the same error that incurred Zapatero and Rajoy: misread the signs in europe.

Zapatero paid a high price for it when in may 2010 he had to undergo a hard adjustment after having spent what Spain had. And Rajoy convinced by one of his advisors, has also committed the imprudence of be attributed to a deficit target much more generous than the agreed with Brussels on the same days 2 and 3 march 2012, at which was signed the Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance. Following that announcement is unilateral, we lost points that cost recover in Europe and the risk premium soared.

we do Not know how much it will cost us the learning curve for Sanchez and his. But it would be good for Spain to learn quickly to see the nuances.

johnmuller.es@gmail.com

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