Donald Trump, these days, is in his Element. Shortly before the Midterm elections, the U.S. President has switched entirely to campaign mode. Instead of every couple of weeks, he is now several times a week on a stage and touts in front of Thousands of followers for yourself and also for the Republicans.
Nevada, Montana, Arizona or West Virginia – States visited Trump, are by no means chosen randomly. He relies on the electoral districts, in which there are many swing voters and the race, are still rather open. With this strategy, he won the presidential election in 2016 – and it could well contribute to the Democrats, at least in the Senate, the majority is impossible.
Because the chances of a democratic majority in the U.S. house of representatives are also, in the Senate, it looks for the Democrats is bad. Also, 35 of the 100 Senate seats are on 6. November re-elected, the Democrats of the 24, the Republicans nine. In Maine and Vermont independent senators are up for re-election. The Democrats (and Independents) would have to defend for a majority all of their own seats and the Republicans at least two Senate seats remove.
This sounds at first glance not feasible, but a total of ten democratic senators to stand alone in such States for re-election, in which the majority of the voters in 2016, Trump agreed in part with more than 19 percentage points ahead. And this is not the only challenge facing the Democrats in the States. What you need to know about the most important race.
North Dakota: National policy on persons
incumbent Heidi Heitkamp was elected in 2012 as the first woman in the US state in the Senate. Your re-election is at all in jeopardy, is rather surprising: their popularity ratings fell under Trump, the Democrat, is still popular – and, actually, incumbent, particularly in smaller States an advantage against their Challenger.
The race in North Dakota serves as a good example of how national politics on local elections is decisive. Trump has won the election here in 2016, significantly, 57 percent of the people in the state appreciate his work – this is the country with the second highest value. Heitkamps Challenger Kevin Cramer is considered to be followers of Trumps and represents in many respects his opinion. This is what the voters.
And the Republicans run a hard campaign against Heitkamp, especially with your ‘ no ‘ to the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh, a judge of the Supreme Court mood. The majority in the state was for the controversial candidates. Heitkamp was initially open to it, to give him their vote, but then decided at the last Moment and voted with no. This step is justified officially in order that they can not vote against their Conscience. However, shortly before polls were published, in which you significantly behind your Challenger has been lagging. Maybe the Democrat would have helped so is also a strategic Yes to Kavanaugh little.
Heitkamp is not the only democratic Senator whose re-election is in danger. Also in Florida, Missouri, Montana and Indiana, the candidate are currently head to head with their Republican challengers.
West Virginia: the success of The conservative Democrats
Slightly better for the democratic Senator Joe Manchin in West Virginia. The statistics of RCP, the incumbent is around nine percentage points ahead of his Challenger. Here, the state is marked is actually very Republican, the majority of the citizens is very religious and against stricter gun laws and abortions. And the majority is behind Trump, 2016, he won 68 per cent, two years later, 62 percent are still with the work of the US President, satisfied.
Manchins success is based on his own political stance: He is considered to be one of the most conservative Democrats in the U.S. Senate. In the vote on Kavanaugh, he was the only Democrat who voted Yes – all the others had forgiven him the voters in the home it hardly.
Arizona: Trumpistin instead of Trump’s critics?
With Jeff Flake is one of the few critics Trumps pulls back under the Republicans from the Senate – where he left it, however, mostly in words, and more rarely also active against the policy of the US President. The race for his seat is one of the scarcest in this year’s Midterm elections: First, the Democrat led Kyrsten Sinema, Republican Martha McSally has caught up in recent weeks and is now on par.
Martha McSally and Kyrsten Sinema
The strategy of the former fighter pilot McSally does not seem to be working: they distance themselves from Trump, but in the election campaign videos on his page and continues on the aggressive rhetoric. “As our President, I have excuses, tired of politically correct politicians and their bullshit,” she says. You have fought in the war against terrorists because the liberals in Washington have made her not afraid.
For a Trump-critics, so the one that is the President of style, similar. In Arizona, there is a tie in the polls reflects the mood in the state when it comes to Trump: About 47 percent do not appreciate the work of the US presidents, 50 per cent. A crucial factor could be in the end a few votes, as so often in the electoral system of the United States.
Nevada: Republicans in Clinton-state
in Nevada, Republicans and Democrats, to provide a head-to-head race, with slight advantages for the conservative incumbent Dean Heller. The initial conditions differ in one point is essential: Nevada is the only state in which presidential candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016 won and now a Republican inaugural cher Senator up for re-election. In addition, more people than Democrats are registered than Republicans – the voters ‘ potential is generally higher. The chances for the Democrats, the Republicans a Senate place to take off, they are nowhere as big as in Arizona and Nevada.
Texas: Democrats-hope-and not voters-potential
This race is probably one of the most described this year’s Midterm elections: Ironically, in conservative Texas Democrat could be the long-established Republican Ted Cruz is dangerous. Beto O’rourke is regarded as a new light figure of the Democrats, and a symbol of hope for a better, different country (read here more about the “white Obama”).
Beto O’rourke and Ted Cruz
In the points O’Rourke, with its demands for health insurance for all, environmental protection, immigration, and stricter weapons laws at the conservative Texans. His example, the different development in the city and in the country is clear: It is the liberal city-dwellers who want to vote for the Democrats. That alone is not enough, however. In order to have a Chance against Cruz, do not need to O mobilize’rourke also the many voters in Texas. In the recent Midterm elections, only 28% of those Eligible cast their vote.
Should be subject to O’Rourke at the end of just or Cruz, even beat, that would be a Sensation. In the most recent surveys, however, Cruz has his lead again to slightly expand, and he is, according to the RCP average of seven points ahead of his Challenger. Is not decided the race. Without Arizona, Nevada, and Texas, the Democrats have a little more chances of getting a majority in the Senate, and in almost all other States where a Republican is up for re-election, the democratic Challenger even worse odds.